I have lots of random, half-baked thoughts today, but I can’t come up with a way to turn them into a cohesive blog post, so I’ve decided to stop trying. I’m just going with: ‘It’s Friday and I have a lot going on, so just be happy you’re getting a post at all and stop whining.’
It’s my lovely webmaster/dishwasher/gardener/romantic boy-toy’s 35th birthday today! That’s right, take a second to go on over to twitter and tweet something inappropriate to @jasonnewlin. He obviously loves inappropriatenessocity; he married me.
It’s also my co-blogger over at Wine and a Spoon’s birthday! I know, it’s such a weird coincidence that they have the same birthday! Except not really because they’re twins. Happy Birthday, Jen Newlin! You can feel free to tweet something inappropriate to her also, but I think she might be less amused, so don’t tell her I told you to (Love you, Jen!).
I’ve been thinking about the rapidly shrinking housing inventory in Metro-Phoenix situation we’ve got going on. I have a prediction for how this is all going to play out over the next few years and I want to get it out there in writing so that if I’m right I’ll be able to prove I’m practically a psychic, or at the very least a genius (and if I’m wrong we’ll just never speak of this again).
Here’s how it’s going to go –
Phase 1: Buyers trying to get into the market while the interest rates are still low have an increasingly difficult time getting under contract because the pool of available houses has shrunk. They make higher offers and those who can, begin doing things like ‘waiving appraisal’.
Phase 2: Prices take a small uptick. The media reports that we’ve ‘really hit the bottom this time, no, we swear it’s for realsies, we’re sure’. This brings out more buyers who want to get in while prices are still low, further reducing the inventory and increasing competition. Prices continue to rise.
Phase 3: Everyone who hasn’t already short sold or foreclosed on the property they own that is underwater scoots to the edge of their seats and watches comps with bated breath to see if finally they might actually be able to sell and break even on the tiny house they bought before they had any kids and are now positively crammed into. Finally they can’t stand it anymore and waves of previously upside-down home owners list their houses in an attempt to get out while the getting is good. This will work for some.
Phase 4: The investors and wannabe investors all got burned and are still recovering from the last market crash, so they don’t come running to snatch up the houses and the market quickly becomes resaturated with property. Price increases grind to a screeching halt.
Phase 5: The remaining short sales and foreclosures (which continue to exist in a constant stream under all of this normal sale drama) begin to drop their prices to get-er-done, once again undercutting the normal sales and causing another market dip.
My knee still hurts. I’ve ramped up my mileage this week because I’m really getting worried I’m not going to be ready for RAGNAR. It’s had the unfortunate effect of ramping up my knee pain as well. Apparently I can have cardiovascular strength or IT band strength, not both.
My sister says I’m over-thinking and it’s all going to be fine. Despite my well-documented history of over-thinking, I don’t think she’s right this time. I’ve given it a lot of thought and I really think I’m doing just the right amount of thinking about all of this, and not over-thinking at all. Plus she’s a super-athlete and it would be totally fine if she was doing it, but if we were twins, I would be the Danny Devito to her Arnold Schwarzenegger. I’m just not convinced it’s going to be totally fine.
So tomorrow I’m going to attempt the 7 mile run again. I’ve decided this is the determining run. If I can make it through and then in 8 hours I can still walk, I will push forward with RAGNAR. If I fail, if it hurts really a lot, if I attempt to hop any fences just to make it all end, well, then I’m waiving the white flag. The race is less than three weeks away; if I’m not well and trained up enough to accomplish 7 miles with mild hills by now, I’m just not going to be ready in time.
This is our 20+ year old cat, Six.
I’m pretty sure she’s just really considerate and has decided to start sleeping here so that when she eventually passes on in her sleep it will be super easy for us to properly dispose of her remains. (Don’t worry, it didn’t happen yet. I can still hear her snoring.)